The Premier League race is exciting.

In fact, the crown may only be decided in the final moments.

Late-season turnaround

Under Mikel Arteta, Arsenal have twice faltered during the crucial acceleration phase. Both times, in the 2022-2023 and 2023-2024 seasons, they fell short at the finish line against their arch-rivals, Manchester City. While a first defeat could be attributed to circumstances, losing a second time with the same scenario only leads to the conclusion that Arteta's youngsters are too inexperienced and lack the necessary composure.

This season, the English Premier League has once again become the stage for a two-horse race between Arsenal and Man City. Arsenal's months-long dominance at the top of the table and Man City's early season slump seemed to have made the English league boring, if not for their late-season turnaround.

Considered one of the most dramatic finales in recent years, at this point, no one can predict who will win the Premier League title. After matchday 36, Arsenal continues to lead with 79 points thanks to a narrow 1-0 victory over West Ham. However, the pressure on them remains undiminished as Man City easily beat Crystal Palace 3-0, narrowing the gap to just 2 points.

Man City has both a disadvantage and an advantage.

Arsenal only need to win both of their remaining matches against Burnley and Crystal Palace to not have to worry about how their rivals Man City are performing. With the Champions League final against PSG at the end of the month, Arsenal can now focus all their attention on the Premier League.

Meanwhile, Man City will have to spread their resources thin. Specifically, after the FA Cup final against Chelsea this weekend, they must immediately return to the Premier League to face Bournemouth and Aston Villa respectively.

The packed fixture schedule may be a disadvantage for Man City, but their squad depth and experience are their strengths, more than enough to help them make a difference. The victory against Crystal Palace is proof of this; Pep Guardiola rotated the squad heavily, fielding six reserve players, yet Man City still completely dominated the team that reached the UEFA Conference League final.

Man City currently have a better goal difference than Arsenal (+43 compared to +42), and this could be a decisive factor if the two teams finish the season with the same number of points. Man City not only have a superior record with 75 goals scored – 7 more than Arsenal – but also hold an advantage in head-to-head encounters, winning one and drawing one against Arsenal this season.