From this reality, the story of sustainable football development raises a more fundamental question: how to transform human potential into real strength, and why is school football becoming an important starting point for the World Cup dream in many countries?
8 out of the 10 most populous countries did not participate in the World Cup.
The FIFA Days at the end of March determined the final ticket holders for the 2026 World Cup. The biggest surprise was Italy, the four-time world champions, missing out on the World Cup for the third consecutive time. However, an even bigger "surprise" came from… the United Nations Population Division (UNPD).
Earlier this year, the UNDP published a list of the 10 most populous countries in the world: India (1.476 billion), China (1.412 billion), the United States (349.03 million), Indonesia (287.88 million), Pakistan (259.29 million), Nigeria (242.43 million), Brazil (213.56 million), Bangladesh (177.81 million), Russia (143.39 million), and Ethiopia (138.9 million). Of these, only Brazil and the United States will qualify for the 2026 World Cup.
In the development of world football, population size is often considered one of the fundamental factors determining a nation's potential. However, in practice, a large population does not necessarily equate to success, and conversely, many countries with modest populations have still built sustainable football foundations. The relationship between population and football therefore needs to be viewed from multiple perspectives, where human resources are a necessary condition, while the development mindset, organizational system, and sports culture are the decisive factors.
Undeniably, a large population provides a rich source of potential players. With a large population, the probability of talent emerging is higher, and it also makes it easier for countries to organize widespread football movements, from schools to communities.
Football powerhouses like Brazil, Germany, France, and England all possess large or medium-sized populations, sufficient to maintain multi-tiered training systems, continuously selecting and replenishing players for their national teams. Large populations also facilitate the formation of a broad football market, encompassing players, spectators, and supporting industries such as media, sponsorship, and broadcasting rights. From this perspective, population is seen as the initial foundation, providing football with fertile ground for development.
However, many populous countries have disproportionately low achievements. The reason lies in the fact that population only provides quantity, while quality depends on the system. A lack of youth training planning, weak infrastructure, low-quality leagues, or unprofessional football governance can render the advantage of a large population wasted. When talent is not discovered early, not properly trained, and not provided with a suitable competitive environment, even a large population cannot translate into genuine football strength.
School football launching pad
Japan is a prime example of transforming its population potential into genuine football strength, with school football being the core element. Instead of relying on selective "elite training academies," Japan built its football foundation from within the school system, where football is considered an integral part of holistic education .
The Japanese high school, senior high school, and university league systems are highly competitive, well-organized, and continuous, attracting significant social attention. National high school tournaments are not just recreational events; they are actually professional launching pads where players hone their skills, discipline, teamwork, and competitive spirit.
The key point is that Japanese school football is not separate from professional football, but is closely linked to J.League clubs. Many national team players have grown directly from this environment, showing that Japan does not depend on a "golden generation," but always maintains a stable flow of successors.
By prioritizing school football, Japan has solved a core problem faced by many populous nations: transforming quantity into quality. This quality was once again demonstrated when the Japanese national team defeated England at Wembley Stadium. Consistent participation in the World Cup and gradually competing on equal footing with top European teams is the inevitable result of a sustainable development strategy, in which schools are the foundation, not just a secondary, part of national football.
With a population of over 100 million, Vietnam is considered a country with great football potential in the Asian region. The successes of the past decade show that, with the right direction, Vietnamese football can absolutely reach new heights.
However, the current challenge is no longer about increasing quantity, but about improving quality. Developing Vietnamese football in this new phase requires a shift from amateur to professional, from mass training to elite training, and from short-term achievements to long-term strategies. A large population gives Vietnam many options, but only when coupled with a scientific competition system, systematic coach training, and investment in infrastructure can these advantages be effectively exploited.
The relationship between population and football development is supportive, not absolutely decisive. Population creates potential, but it is the development mindset, the quality of training, and the football culture that transform potential into achievement. In the context of strong globalization and professionalization, the challenge for football is no longer about "many or few people," but about the question: How effectively does a nation utilize its human resources?