On the London exchange, robusta coffee futures for July 2026 delivery rose by $12 (+0.3%) to $3,970 per ton. The September 2026 contract increased by $12 per ton (+0.32%) to $3,783 per ton; the November 2026 contract rose by $19 per ton (+0.51%) to $3,745 per ton. Other contracts saw price increases of $19-20 per ton.
Conversely, on the New York exchange, the price of Arabica coffee for July 2026 delivery reversed course, falling 8.65 US cents/pound (-2.67%) to 315.65 US cents/pound; the price for September 2026 delivery fell 8.7 US cents/pound (-2.81%) to 301.2 US cents/pound; and the December 2026 contract saw a price decrease of 8.55 US cents/pound (-2.9%) to 286.3 US cents/pound. Prices for other contracts fell by 8.45-8.95 cents/pound.The decline in arabica prices is mainly due to profit-taking and liquidation of long positions ahead of the long holiday weekend in the US, following a period of strong price increases for several consecutive weeks.
However, the fundamental factors of the market remain largely unchanged. In Brazil – the world's largest coffee producer and exporter – prolonged rain continues to slow the harvest and increase concerns about the quality of the coffee beans.
According to Somar Meteorologia, Brazil's weather forecasting agency, the state of Minas Gerais, the country's largest arabica-growing region, recorded 31.3 mm of rainfall in the week ending June 28, nearly 20 times higher than the historical average for the same period.
Prolonged rain lasting for weeks not only hinders harvesting but also increases the risk of ripe fruit falling to the ground, affecting quality and incurring additional collection costs.
Jonas Ferraresso, an agricultural expert advising coffee farms in Brazil, said that after heavy rains, many coffee cherries have fallen to the ground. When the weather dries up again, growers will have to consider whether or not to collect this coffee, because for mechanized farms, manual harvesting incurs significant costs.
Meanwhile, Tomas Araujo, a broker at StoneX, a global financial services and commodity trading company, said that many offers for high-quality coffee in the Brazilian domestic market have been withdrawn as farmers continue to hoard their stock, expecting further price increases.
According to him, even before the bad weather arrived, the amount of coffee farmers were bringing to market was already low, and the heavy rains made sales even more cautious.
Harvest progress also reflects the impact of the weather. Cooxupé – Brazil's largest coffee cooperative – reported that as of June 28, its members had harvested only 24.9% of the 2026 crop, lower than the 31.4% harvested at the same time last year.
Besides weather factors, the level of certified inventory on the ICE exchange continues to create a contrasting trend between the two types of coffee.
ICE-certified arabica inventories fell to 375,079 bags, the lowest level in about 2.25 years, further supporting prices. Meanwhile, robusta inventories recovered to 4,053 lots, the highest level in about 2.75 months, after hitting a two-year low in mid-May.
From a global supply perspective, Vietnam continues to record positive export volumes. Reuters citing government data According to reports , in the first six months of 2026, Vietnam exported approximately 1.1 million tons of coffee, an increase of 9.7% compared to the same period last year.
However, export turnover reached only $4.78 billion, a decrease of 14.4%, indicating that the average export price has fallen significantly compared to the high of the same period last year.