Somehow, Max Verstappen’s announcement that he has signed a contract with Red Bull until the end of 2030 felt like both a surprise and a formality. The four-time world champion has walked a fine line throughout his career and did so again when it came to his future in Formula One, and with the team he has been with for 10 years.
He has been so vocally critical about his views on the new regulations as well as the lack of competitiveness for his Red Bull car, if not exactly about the team itself, that a seismic decision to walk away felt possible. Yet as time dragged on he became more likely to stay put, the prospect of significantly better machinery or tempting deals fading into the background. It was not a great shock.
The news is good for some and less good for others. Evidently, it is good for Verstappen, otherwise he would not have put pen to paper. However, it all but ends any chances of an exciting 2027 driver market at the front of the grid.
Just one spot is available at the top four teams of Mercedes, McLaren, Ferrari and Red Bull – and that is who gets to be Verstappen’s team-mate. Given his promising first half of the season alongside the Dutchman, Isack Hadjar deserves to slot in there again. The future of Fernando Alonso these days is less monumental than it once was, his enduring quality notwithstanding. Verstappen’s commitment also closes down options at either Red Bull for Liam Lawson or Arvid Lindblad and then at Racing Bulls if either of them leave the team.
It is the best news for Red Bull. Verstappen is one of the sport’s all-time greats and has probably been the best-performing driver on the grid in almost every season since 2018. The team will be determined to turn its fortunes around after the turbulence of the last two years. It will be an order of magnitude easier with Verstappen at the wheel for the next four seasons.
Laurent Mekies, the team principal who replaced Christian Horner last season, looked as pleased as punch in the announcement video. As well he might be. That is not to say that Verstappen is guaranteed to fulfil his contract – there are likely to be performance-related release clauses.
It is also good news for George Russell. Verstappen moving to Mercedes always seemed to be the likeliest option were he to leave Red Bull. Toto Wolff would have him in a flash and Mercedes have bounced back strongly from the last regulation and look poised to ace the new ones. The question then would have been who made way: Russell or Kimi Antonelli?
On 2025’s showing, Antonelli was by far the poorer performer. This year, Russell has been a little adrift of his Italian team-mate and struggling for answers on how to beat him. There would have been other factors to consider when combining Verstappen with either current Mercedes driver, but Russell can now at least focus on getting himself back into the title fight this year and making a far better fist of it next year, when Mercedes are still likely to be in contention.
Other drivers who might have been hopeful of a lively driver market will also be disappointed. Carlos Sainz, a four-time race winner with Ferrari, drove superbly in the second half of last season and is doing so again this year, albeit with a poor Williams car that makes gauging his true performance difficult. He has been openly critical of the standard of Williams’ FW48 and might have been able to benefit from a driver merry-go-round situation had Verstappen left Red Bull or the sport altogether.
On the face of it Verstappen committing to Red Bull until 2030 is good for F1. When he was making his most critical statements on the new regulations at the start of the year I wrote that F1 would be a poorer place without him. As well as being the best driver on the grid and one of the sport’s all-time greats, his abrasiveness and honesty are qualities that should be valued in an overly sanitised sporting landscape, even if he occasionally crosses the line.
Yet it would have been far more interesting to see him switch teams. That kind of behaviour used to be more commonplace in F1 30 years ago, even with the best drivers. In the space of four seasons, Alain Prost went from McLaren to Ferrari and then to Williams, winning two titles and 16 grands prix in that period. Lewis Hamilton has won races with F1’s three most successful teams. Verstappen ending his career with a different team would, frankly, have been a lot more entertaining for F1 fans.
Yet if Verstappen ends at Red Bull in 2030 it will have been a staggering 15 seasons at a single team. Of course, every contract has a price and anyone can be bought out. If things in 2028 are not looking too rosy for Red Bull, then it is possible that the speculation begins again. If there is any driver for whom a team would break the bank, it would be Verstappen.