Monsoon rainfall is likely to be “below normal” at 94% of the long-period average (LPA), with an error margin of +/-5%, private weather forecaster Skymet Weather said on Tuesday.
India received above-normal rainfall last year, with 7.9% excess compared to the LPA. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said northwest India recorded 747.9mm of rainfall last season. That was the highest rainfall since 2001 and the sixth highest since 1901. East and northeast India recorded their second-lowest rainfall since 1901 last year.
Monsoon is the lifeblood of India’s economy. According to the agriculture ministry, 51% of India’s farmed area, accounting for 40% of production, is rain-fed, making the Monsoon critical.
Skymet said there is a 40% chance of this year’s monsoon being “below normal” (between 90% to 95% of LPA), a 30% chance of drought (less than 90% of LPA), a 20% chance of normal (between 96% to 104% of LPA), and a 10% chance of above normal (between 105% to 110% of LPA). The LPA for the four monsoon months (June to September) is 868.6mm.
“The spread is below normal, being 90-95% of LPA. In its earlier forecast in Jan 2026, Skymet assessed the Monsoon 2026 to be subpar and now retains the same,” Skymet Weather said.
Skymet managing director Jatin Singh said after a year-and-a-half of La Niña conditions, the Pacific Ocean has turned favourable for El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral.
“Equatorial Pacific ocean-atmosphere coupling is now stronger than before. El Niño is expected during the early phase of the southwest Monsoon and will keep growing stronger until fall of the year. El Niño return may presage a weaker Monsoon. The second half of the season is likely to be more erratic and irregular.”
El Niño years typically bring weak monsoons and harsh summers to India.
Besides ENSO, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has the capacity to drive Monsoon circulation. “A strong positive IOD event during the season has the potential to partially avert the ill effects of El Niño. IOD is expected to be neutral or delicately positive. It will contribute to a decent start to the Monsoon. However, the chances of Monsoon getting impaired during the second half of the season cannot be dismissed. The seasonal rainfall distribution will be at risk of being diverse and biased,” Skymet said.
Central and North-West India may face a rainfall deficit. June will be stable, but rainfall is likely to weaken from July to September.
In June, rainfall is likely to be 101% of LPA (LPA for June is 165.3mm), 95% of LPA for July (LPA for July is 280.5mm), 92% of LPA for August (LPA for August is 254.9mm) and 89% of LPA for September (LPA for September is 167.9mm), as per Skymet Weather’s projections.
According to the IMD, Neutral ENSO conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The latest forecasts from the Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System suggest that ENSO-neutral conditions are most likely to continue until June.
The probability of El Niño conditions developing increases gradually. There is a 62% chance of El Niño emerging in the June-July-August period. There is an 80% chance of El Niño persisting in August-September-October.