Nothing says March Madness and the NCAA Tournament, quite like big upsets. The most common upset in the NCAA Tournament is the No. 12 seed over the No. 5 seed. There’s several notable 12-vs.-5 seed upsets that have happened over the last decade. There has been at least one No. 12 seed that upset a No. 5 seed in every NCAA Tournament since 2019 – not including 2020, which had a canceled tournament – except for 2023.
In each of the last two years, there were two No. 5 seeds upset and since 2000, the No. 12 seed has beaten a No. 5 seed 39 times. Odds are that while you’re making your bracket, you may want to consider a No. 12 seed pulling off an upset. The question is which one? Here’s a look at the history of the dreaded No. 12 seed and No. 5 seed matchup.
How often has a No. 12 seed upset a No. 5 seed in March Madness
No. 12 seeds are 57-103 against the No. 5 seeds, boasting a 35.6 win percentage since the NCAA Tournament expansion to 64 teams back in 1985. And with 39 of those wins coming since the turn of the century, it’s clear that if you’re a No. 5 seed, you don’t want to match up against an upset-hungry No. 12 seed.
Though there wasn’t a No. 12 seed upset in 2023, it’s happened twice in each of the last March Madness tournaments. Last year, it was McNeese State stunning Clemson and Colorado State, led by Nique Clifford, stunning the Memphis Tigers in the first round. It highlighted just how often it happens and just how dangerous it is being a No. 5 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
What's the furthest a No. 12 seed has gone in March Madness
As often as the No. 12 seed pulls off the upset, it doesn’t necessarily correlate to a deep NCAA Tournament run. The furthest a No. 12 seed has gone in the NCAA Tournament is the Elite Eight, when then Pac-12 participant 12th seeded Oregon State put together a memorable Cinderella run back in 2018. There hasn’t been a 12 seed to reach the Elite Eight since. The only other team to do it was Missouri back in 2002.
That’s how hard it is to keep the Cinderella run going. So when you’re filling out your brackets, keep in mind that No. 12 seeds, while performing well against No. 5 seeds, rarely make it out of the first weekend and if they do, have never reached the Final Four. Could this year be the year that a No. 12 seed puts together a deep NCAA Tournament run?
What are the most likely No. 12 vs. No. 5 seed upsets in this year’s March Madness?
No. 12 McNeese State vs. No. 5 Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt stormed through the SEC Tournament, reaching the title game and falling to Arkansas. They’ve been one of the top teams in the SEC this year and earned the No. 5 seed. I think they should have no problem advancing in the NCAA Tournament. That said, if there’s any team that will knock them off, It’s McNeese.
The Cowboys did it last year, beating Clemson and are looking to do the same this year. As much as I like Vanderbilt, it’s hard to overlook the fact that the pressure of putting it together in the NCAA Tournament could be insurmountable. Tyler Tanner is an NBA prospect, Duke Miles found a new home this season in Nashville, it just feels like the Commodores are set for a deep tournament run.
McNeese could halt all of that and it shouldn’t surprise you if they do. Vanderbilt will either come out with an edge after laying a dud in the SEC Tournament title game, or they’ll still be reeling from the loss and carry that into the NCAA Tournament, which is the exact recipe for a big upset.
No. 12 Akron vs. No. 5 Texas Tech
Texas Tech lost its best player JT Toppin to an ACL injury and then lost another star during the Big 12 Tournament, but is slated to have Christian Anderson back for the NCAA Tournament. Akron is fresh off an upset win over Toledo in the Mid-American Conference Tournament title game and are hungry for another upset. This just has upset written all over it for me. Texas Tech being down one of its starts and an injured, first team All-Big 12 member, the Red Raiders will have a tough out.
Are the Red Raiders the better team? Absolutely. But the best teams don’t always win in the NCAA Tournament. Usually it’s the team that plays better that earns the win. In Akron’s case, because they have nothing to lose and a favorable opponent considering the circumstances, they have reason to stun Texas Tech.
More March Madness news and analysis
- When is the deadline to fill out your March Madness bracket in 2026
- Texas' First Four win sets up a brutal test for BYU and AJ Dybantsa
- Why is it called March Madness? The improbable story behind the NCAA Tournament name
- March Madness Power Rankings: Top 20 teams for 2026 based on betting odds